Today, I'd like to share personal reflections on various topics. What follows are thoughts about the future stemming from curiosity and personal analysis. My intention isn't to claim infallible expertise but rather to be a curious observer. We are just days to be once again at @CES2024 where I will show you the latest advances in technology. However, in 2024, I anticipate humanity will encounter numerous challenges and achievements that up to now seemed impossible.
1. AI: The conversation around artificial intelligence is likely to continue into 2024. AI platforms for widespread use will continue emerging, capable of accomplishing unimaginable tasks. AI has been present for years; the advent of ChatGPT has played a pivotal role in making AI popular and accessible to any human being. It's crucial to be cautious since not everything labeled as AI truly qualifies as such. Creative fields like advertising and graphic design may see AI replacing roles. Governments will rigorously regulate AI to prevent its misuse while striving to enhance the overall quality of life.
2. Politics
- US: The Democratic Party may face challenges and strategic reassessment to counterbalance growing support for Donald Trump. From a purely marketing standpoint, I think the Democrats will wait until the last minute to launch their strategy to prevent Donald Trump from being re-elected (as, up to date, it looks like he will be the candidate for the Republican party). Either President Biden could replace the vice-president to strengthen his position, or he may step down at the last minute to support another Democratic candidate, such as California governor Gavin Newsom. In any case, this presidential election will affect stocks and investments in the US until it happens.
- Latin America: Mexico will be the focus of attention due to last year's presidential period of President Lopez Obrador, not only to see if Mexico will continue to be governed by the left but also because it may be the first time Mexico could have a woman president, as there are two female candidates running for presidency. There’s a possibility of slight improvement in Venezuela, contingent on political events. Colombia could grapple with ongoing instability due to the current government's failure to achieve electoral promises. Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and possibly Peru will have brand new presidents, bringing uncertainty to the region. One key point is that "gig employment” run by near-shoring will keep growing in Latin America in 2024.
3. Advertising: The advertising industry is poised for continued growth, particularly in "retail media”. The consolidation of Retail Media as the third wave of digital advertising after search and social media is expected in 2024. Budgets from trade marketing will be mixed up with advertising budgets, keeping the industry growing. Amazon will be consolidated as one of the three big monsters in advertising. Resources are increasingly being directed by advertisers toward electronic retail platforms. Concurrently, the debate on cookies, key to consumer tracking, persists. First-party data emerges as a continuing focal point, extending this discussion for the future. However, I think that Google will once again postpone the decision to eliminate cookies under pressure from advertisers. Moreover, we could expect potential mergers or platform formations. Possibilities include alliances in physical retail forming between Google and/or Facebook and acquisitions of streaming platforms by retail giants. This holistic strategy encompasses physical and online realms, entertainment, retail, and search engines, with companies lacking in any of these facets facing a disadvantage. Agency business will keep moving to create networks of independent agencies in a more agile and efficient model for advertisers, continuing the trend of obsolescence for legacy full-service agency and media agency models. AI will play a key role in automating and self-service of advertising platforms, reducing costs while increasing quality in services such as creativity and graphic design. Consumers will push manufacturers for consistency between what they advertise and how they act towards social responsibility, making it increasingly important to include this item in marketing plans.
4. Medicine: Virtual consultations may lead to the sale of medical kits for basic vital sign examinations at home. AI-driven virtual doctors might offer initial diagnoses, potentially replacing Urgent Care doctors for minor viral and infections illnesses. I'm eager to see what @CES2024 presents on this topic. Another significant news in 2024 could be the FDA's definitive approval for a drug to alleviate Alzheimer's symptoms among senior citizens. Additionally, we anticipate the final FDA approval for LOY-001, an anti-aging drug for dogs that could extend their longevity. Although the drug isn't for humans, it sparks hope that similar medicines for humans might emerge in the coming years, offering benefits for our generation or the next.
5. Mobility: Autonomous vehicles have the potential to reshape vehicle ownership towards an on-demand and shared model, similar to Airbnb. However, challenges concerning liabilities and infrastructure still need to be addressed. Autonomy won't be an issue, as some models can reach 400 miles with a single charge. However, long trips continue to face challenges due to the lack of fast chargers in remote areas and the time needed to recharge, even with fast chargers.
Non-fossil fuels are becoming prevalent in transportation; large commercial aircraft are starting to use these fuels in trans-oceanic flights, reducing both contamination and operational costs. Airlines will persist in competing based on pricing, with first-class making way for more seats in premium economy and business class (featuring flat beds) for long-haul trips. There's potential for a revolution with the introduction of supersonic planes for commercial flights, but we'll need to wait at least another 5 years for them to become operational again. The use of electric bikes will continue to be promoted by many cities, especially in Europe and Latin America, such as Bogotá, where such programs are already in operation.
2024 is expected to be a revolutionary year in innovation; however, we cannot overlook the impact it will have on unemployment and contamination. It is our responsibility to work on minimizing the negative impact while maximizing the positive effects on our communities.